Battle of the mobile operating systems

The mobile phone has increasingly become important to us. We have always loved our phones as they keep us connected and hold all our contacts. But the mobile handset in the last few years has started taking on a new role - a personal information companion.

The mobile handset for many of us now does not just contain our phones numbers and texts but also our email, photo's, video's, music, directions/maps and is a window onto our social networks and vital web sites.

Nokia boldly announced their handsets as the computer in your pocket, and whilst when that tag line was launched it felt a bit of a stretch it increasingly is true.

The mobile handset is truly becoming an extension of your PC at home - which is for many people the once place they keep all their information and communications. Over the next few years we are likely to see more information being stored in 'the cloud' which will get over storage limitations of mobile handsets and slowly turn them into our most frequently used computing device. Quite soon the mobile handset will become our primary PC.

But this cannot happen unless the right devices are available and services to deliver the experience. 2007 and 2008 have seen the devices come to market, finally after years of experimenting the manufacturers are launching products in form factors that really work.

Services needed to bring the computing experience to mobile handsets are really starting to happen. iTunes, Gmail and Google Maps are good examples. We are also starting to see the first capable mobile web browsers sneak out the door too. All in all its coming together.

The knock on effect of this is every body and their dog now recognises that mobile is very, very important indeed. This is where the next battle of the Titans is forming up. The hardware battle has been on-going for years, and the services evolving for a long time too. Its the mobile operating system (OS) thats now seeing the action.

Its a little like the battle for PC dominance. Windows slowly but surely bought up all the functionality you would want on a PC and integrated it into Windows.

Previously on mobile handsets most of the functionality not absolutely necessary for making calls and sending SMS messages was created by third parties. Nokia on its Series 60 handsets for example includes a whole range of third party applications that perform many common tasks. The overall feeling of a Nokia handset is a little like Windows in the old days. Lots of functionality and possibilities but with limited integration and ease of use.

But the world is changing. Mobile handsets are becoming more like Vista and Mac OS where its a fully integrated environment, and one where the owner of that OS can largely choose what services they push at you, and how.

So the one that owns the mobile OS will own the customer (not the hardware manufacturer) and guide what they do with their digital and online life when mobile. And as discussed the chances are these mobile devices will become your primary interface into that life.

So it boils down to this - the one that owns the mobile OS has the opportunity to own the entire ecosystem from end to end. Not just mobile but desktop too (but that will become less important). As the mobile becomes your primary devices, your PC will become a rich extension of your mobile. Rather than right now your mobile is a dumbed down extension of your PC.

So what does that mean? The Microsoft dominance of the computing world is seriously under threat.....

All was clam in mobile OS until last year. Nokia shipped 40% of all phones on the planet giving Symbian the largest market share. Symbian slowly evolved, and largely people love it through habit if nothing else. Then there was Microsoft Windows Mobile which was the only real competitor on the block, really aimed at the business market. A few niche players existed like RIM but the market was largely made up of lots pf proprietary OS on tier 2 handset vendors devices. And that was fine because these devices were used for making calls and sending texts.

A few things started to change that. The Nokia N95 was launched which all of a sudden made a mobile handset capable of doing so much more. Later that year the Apple iPhone launched which showed us how powerful an integrated OS environment could be. The functionality might have been limited - but it worked really well, did the things most of us wanted and was really easy.

This had a really interesting effect on the market. Nokia did not over react, it has been working hard on a new format device, to be launched when it all works well and its ready. The rest of the market however went nuts. Manufacturers quickly launched large touch screen devices to compete with the iPhone.

This highlighted something very quickly. Proprietary OS no longer cut it. It needed a new set of skills to integrate all the things a handset could now do, and it simply took too long and was too expensive. So they did the obvious thing, took an existing third party OS and put it on the device, an OS that could already deal with touch screen (and has been for some years). That OS is Microsoft Windows Mobile.

I bet they were quite shocked with the speed of take up of their MS WM on new, sexy consumer devices. The problem was it showed very quickly it was not up to the job. Firstly the OS tries to be Windows, on a mobile. Thats the wrong way around - that results in lots of simulated mouse activity with a stylus. I want to be able to use my phone whilst walking down the street - not stop, pull out a stylus, poke around a bit then carry on walking.

From a usability perspective it sucks. It also has a pretty poor web browser and worst of all it is really, really sluggish.

I have not used MS WM in years because I found it too hard. Last year, shortly after getting my iPhone, I bought a top of the range HTC handset. When it arrived it was obviously broken as it was so slow to respond to key presses and basic functions. I sent it back and was shocked to find out with my replacement that this is just the way it is. It was terrible.

The device manufacturers recognised that it was not up to the job on their new raunchy hardware, so set about designing a new front end for it. each manufacturer has its own graphic front end for MS WM. But ultimately its the same OS behind the scenes, so as soon as you get off the main menu screen you are back in the same experience. And worse still they are still just as unresponsive.

This is a nightmare for the manufacturers, as there is not really another easy option they can buy off the shelf.

Nokia is not a stupid company. The outside world seems to think they are slow to react. Wrong. They think things out in the wider strategic context and make good, big decisions and then act upon them with the full force of their organisation. Take Ovi, music and mapping for example. Nokia understand the future of the mobile OS and the environment and ecosystem it must support. They are taking pain and investing early.

So cleverly they have identified that they must also open up their OS to ensure it gets wider adoption and more third party application development. So they bought Symbian out and gave it to the masses. This was not a knee jerk reaction, but a smart move that will pay dividends in the next 18 months. So now the handset manufacturers have a second (and at this point far superior) option.

But Nokia are not the only smart company in town.

This year the Google Android OS is hitting the streets in the HTC G1 sold through T-Mobile. Google have realised how important this platform is. They saw more YouTube traffic from the iPhone over Christmas than they did from all the other devices put together for example.

They realise how important this battle is, and how winning it could give them computing dominance. Do not for one second think they are not interested in owning the mobile and the desktop. Already on my machine I don't use MS Office any more, I use Google Docs. I have Google Desktop on my computer to find things. I use Google Chrome as my web browser. I use GMail and Calendar. And of course I use their search. In fact the OS and the hardware is just about the only non-Google thing I use.

You could argue they do not need to own the OS space. But they do. They want you as a sticky customer, and one they can mine for information and advertise too. I don't mind being exploited by them, I use their tools for free and I think they are the best on the market. Seems like a perfectly reasonable deal to me. Mind you what happens when they have us all over a barrel in 36 months time is another story, and the topic for another blog.

So if Google can own your mobile life by owning the mobile OS and a large chunk of the services on it - it is well along the way to invading every area of our computing life.

Nokia should take note at this. Nokia if you took your N810 Internet Tablet and changed its format to netbook size/power and gave us the ability to have basic office functionality you would have a strong potential play in the wider computing world. The netbook market is up for grabs right now, as Microsoft does not have a medium or long term game plan. And netbooks will out sell laptops within 3 years. this is Nokia's weakness right now - it needs a plan for the rest of our computing lives, or it will never dominate the mobile computing world - the two are joined at the hip.

Anyway back to Google. Their OS is open to the world to develop what ever they like for it, which should mean developers and manufacturers have all the flexibility in the world (at little or no cost) to implement what they want. A stark contrast to the controlling world of Apple. Neither is necessarily the right answer by the way, no matter how much we like or dislike them.

So where does all this leave us? Apple and Google have stormed in with strong offerings. The Apple iPhone will succeed - all it has to do is convert some of its 90%+ music player market share to iPhone and it does very well. A good percentage of those will then convert to Mac OS. The Google platform shows real potential and with a large number of manufacturers looking to use it could be in real volume soon. Nokia will play catch up on the OS front over the next 18 months - they are already doing it, and they will execute well. Microsoft I think are lost at sea, they do not seem to have an answer to this market, in the same way they do not have an answer in the netbook market.

So I predict that Apple will ultimately mirror their PC penetration levels in mobile OS, with a similar closed strategy and do exceptionally well. They will not dominate but they will carve a big chunk out of the market and make it theirs. That will leave the rest of their computing ecosystem in tact and defended (with opportunity to grow).

Google will take a bigger foothold in our computing lives, and if they continue to capitalise on the joined up story could become a serious dominant force in all areas.

Nokia will continue to take the largest share in the mobile device area, but this will gradually erode unless they find a way to take it to the desktop/laptop too. They have a services strategy to cover this, but it probably needs to go a little deeper.

Microsoft are in danger of retreating to a hardcore business market where their devices are used in MS orientated corporate projects. But in the real world nobody will buy an MS based handset unless they work out how to make a usable OS for the mass market. The result will be Apple, Google and a number of Linux players will quite heavily start to encroach on their computing space.

But of course remember if you irritate the Microsoft machine it does have a tendency to react eventually - and when it does in a determined fashion it can turn things around.

But in summary expect the mobile in your hand to start to dictate the rest of your computing life - and those that win your heart in your hand will win the rest of you over.

UK WiFi Deconstructs Itself Further

A few weeks ago I wrote about the prospects for public WiFi in the UK market (here).  Its seems that in the face of adversity the players in the market have done something about it.  But was it a) collaborate to create on a proposition to beat 3G; or b) fracture the market further and weaken the proposition?

Well yes you guessed it they chose the latter - genius!!!

The UK has very few players in the WiFi market these days.  The two front runners are The Cloud and BT Openzone.  Which is great because they are allies and therefore present to customers a unified network footprint.  Coming in close behind them is T-Mobile.  Other than that Swisscom, Orange, Spectrum, Boingo are all in the market - but not in a substantial way.

So whilst the UK is the most competitive telecoms market in the world, there are few companies in the WiFi game, and they are working together so they should stand half a chance of presenting the customer a unified proposition.

Lets recap on the general market (this will be short).  3G data access is eating the lunch of the WiFi operators (no matter how much they deny it).  Their business traveller market is fast disappearing and its starting to heavily erode the new consumer market as well. If you want a long analysis read my reviousblog on the subject.

So what has happened to make this situation worse?  On Friday The Register reported that BT Openzone customers were being informed that as of Thursday this week they could no longer access The Cloud footprint.

Lets assume for sake of argument that it was equally both their faults - one wanted too much money and the other didn't want to pay enough.  However it happened its just decreased the likelyhood of public WiFi playing a significant role in the UK market.

Its true that users may notice very little difference in their coverage.  But BT you have just signalled to users that they cant get unified access to WiFi through the UK's biggest operator - that makes 3G so much more attractive to them, especially when 3G is cheaper and everywhere.  Cloud you have just lost your biggest visible partner to market and positioned yourself as tough to do business with.  Thats not a step forward.

The biggest problem for public WiFi is it isn't everywhere and 3G is. It just is not as convenient.  This latest event just magnifies that.  And its not as if WiFi is cheaper  - it isn't, its now significantly more expensive than cellular.  It doesn't offer massively better bandwidth in real world implementations either.

Retail public WiFi in the UK is heading south rapdily with this latest announcement.  WiFi will continue to make a significant contribution as a bundled part of a cellular tariff IF the operators can offer the MNO pricing that makes it cheaper to transit than their own network.

But unless a very different approach is taken, really fast, WiFi will not exist in a retail market for long.

Presentation tips - a bit random but might help someone...

A friend asked me for a few tips on presenting, so I jotted a few down.  I'm sure this will be useful to someone out there - sorry if its a bit random, it did it off the top of my head!

 

Planning the presentation

The top tip is don't use any slides at all - it takes a huge amount of confidence but if you can do it you will make an excellent presentation. People want to get engaged with you not a projector. But I think for a first time thats a pretty big ask so lets assume you want to do some.

don't do too many slides. Doing too many is a mistake as you will feel the slides are rushing you. You should have one slide for every 3-4 minutes of your presentation - but the longer your presentation is then the time between slide should reduce (otherwise people get bored).If you are doing a ten minute presentation 3 slides plus a title slide is enough. should be the absolute maximum. A 20 minute presentation should be 7-8 slides at the most. A 30 minute presentation can be 15 slides. Anything more than 30 minutes and you are getting into a whole different type of communication. I am assuming that is not the case for you so lets assume you have less than 30 minutes.

Each slide should not contain too much information. As a rule no more than 5 bullet points with no ore than 10 words per bullet. People want to hear what you have to say - don't put everything you are going to say on your slides - if you do why would they bother listening to you - you could just email it to them. Also if you put a lot on a slide the audience will start reading it as soon as it comes up. Often this means they will stop listening to you so they can read it.

You bullet points should read like sun headlines. A good sun headline bullet point is four or five words. So its impactful, says what it means but leaves the reader wanting/needing to hear more. That will make your audience listen to you.

A presentation should tell a story. A story has a start, middle and an end. The audience should feel like they are being taken on a journey. Start with what you are going to talk about - give the audience a heads up. You don't necessarily put this on the slide, you can say it. Then you want to set the scene, then give them the detail and then summarise.

Open a blank power point presentation and open as many slides as you are going to need. So lets say for example you are going to do 4 slides. Make a title slide and 4 empty slides. don't worry what they look like at this stage. Your first job is to work out the title of each slide. The titles should seem like they flow as part of a story and answer the comments/questions raised on the previous one.

Once you have done that jot your thoughts down as bullets on each one as to what that slide should contain. You will find that those notes will probably form the basis for the bullet points.

When writing the slides imagine yourself saying it. What do the audience want to know about - don't tell them crap they are not interested in. Will they understand it - don't confuse them, you may need to more explanatory if they are new to the subject. don't treat them like kids - nothing is worse than listening to someone talk about something you already know about, they are al professionals - tell them things they don't know.

Once you have the bullets on the page you need to make it look pretty. This helps people stay interested in what you are saying - especially if part of it is something they already know about. A slide coming up with four bullets and a picture is a lot more exciting than no picture. The image doesnt have to say anything, although it is good if it helps to explain something on the slide. It can just be an image of a document if you are talking about legal documents for example. It just adds a bit of visual interest.

Before the presentation

The best way to feel relaxed about your presentation is to be confident about the contents. Rehearse. Stand up in a room with your slides and rehearse. Pretend there is an audience there and go through your presentation five times. Say things out loud, even if you only whisper it - because it takes longer to talk than to talk in your mind. Time each presentation. Make sure that if you have 10 minutes your presentation only takes up to 7-8 minutes.

If you are really not confident write yourself an entire script of everything you will say. Then memorise it, and practice reading from it over and over again. This will make it more of a reaction than something you have to remember. When the words become second nature you can focus more on your delivery style.

Then take your script and boil it down to a few key sentences. This will act as a written prompt should you forget where you are while presenting. They should be different to your bullets - these points are what you are actually going to say rather than what they are going to read. Here is an example of how I would boil down one paragraph:

If this is what I am going to say "Hi there, I'm Owen Geddes. Over the next ten minutes I am going to talk to you about how wireless broadband is going to change the lives of millions of people in India India as a country has a huge population of over a billion people, that to a large extent are unconnected. However the country is growing through huge growth in economic terms, which has a knock on effect with communications. The country is leap frogging whole technologies and as a result is perfect for wireless broadband. It has only about 4 million broadband subscribers, but has over 150 million mobile users, of which over 40 million regularly access the Internet via their phone. The population has limited fixed infrastructure but there is a desire for connectivity. Laptop sales are increasing 100% year on year, with virtually all of them being WiFi enabled. With major cities housing tens of millions of people and densities of 20-50k people per square kilometer there is a clear case for wireless broadband."

This is the notes I would have to go with this:

• Billion people in India

• 4m broadband

• 150mmobile and 40m use Internet

• 20-50k people per sq km in cities

Get a set of notes written up - so the words are big. When you present you will be surprised how hard it is to read anything if you panic - everything seems too small and long. So make your notes short, big text and easy to understand. You will have these notes by your side when you present. They will be your comfort blanket if you don't feel confident at any point.

Making the presentation

Before you start remember people have come to listen because they are interested. They have not come to pick holes in anything you do. They have come to learn. The best thing you can do for them to make them happy is make it short and interesting. If its short they will love you.

You are going to want to be mobile when talking if possible. It helps if you are standard and you can move around a bit - it helps to loosen you up and makes you more interesting to look at. So find yourself a space when you start.

Don't rush. Its not a race - half the words at half the pace is appreciated. Nobody wants to have to struggle to keep pace with you. Remember you know what you are talking about but they might not. So make it simpler than you would normally and go at half the speed. Talk at a speed that you think is almost embarrassing. Go at the speed you in your mind makes you appear to be a retard. Believe me on the outside it will be just about right. A slow deliberate presentation comes over as very, very confident and relaxed.

Remember you are in control. When you have the stage you are king. You are the authority and you have the right to be talking. You control the audience. They will do as you tell them within reason. If you are lively they will be lively. If you are boring they will be boring. 95% of people don't want public confrontation. remember if someone asks a question they are not trying to be awkward, they just want to know. don't panic if they ask something. If you know the answer, tell them. If they don't tell them you find find out and let them know later. If someone is in any way confrontational just say "I understand your point. Its probably not for discussion here, lets discuss it together after the presentation". If they try and push any point after saying that they will appear unreasonable, selfish and to be disrupting the presentation and the audience will side with you, and often take action themselves to stop the person.

If you tell someone to shut up in that room (nicely of course) - 99 times out of 100 they will because you are in charge. They know the crowd will turn on them if they don't follow your very reasonable requests.

When speaking take breaks. Every now and then stop and take a deep breath. better still have a glass of water on the table. Every now and then stop and take a sip. This gives you a few seconds to organise things in your mind and plan what you will say next. It may seem like an eternity when you are doing it - the audience will not even notice you do it. If you forget what you were going to say next take a sip of your water, and then take a deep breath whilst looking at your notes and carry on.

Nobody will mind if you forget something for a second, stammer or get a word in the wrong order. Everybody sat there knows its hard standing up in front of people and most of them are glad you are there instead of them. As a result they have no problem if you stumble a bit - they wont hold it against you or laugh. nobody expects you to be perfect - you are not a trained public speaker.

Make sure you use your hands a lot - don't wave them around wildly but enough to look animated. In turn that will help your voice sounds animated. You don't want to sound monotone - you want to sound enthusiastic. Let your personality shine through. Be you not a robot. Use a little humor if you can. Its not unprofessional, and makes everybody relax and warm to you making your job easier. Heads of state do it, CEO's do it - its not unprofessional - its human, and that is key. Be a human being and people will like you. If they like you they will forgive anything to you say or any mistakes you make. Everybody by nature wants to be in a pack - in modern day this means having friends. When you are stood up in a room you are effectively head of the pack for a short period. therefore people really badly want to be your friend as that means security for them. remember that - they want to be your friend.

Be casual. Chances are you will be nervous which will make your appear stand-offish, up tight and not likable. Imagine you are in your jeans and t-shirt and the room is your friends after a couple of drinks. Just relax. don't worry about nerves by the way. The one thing that will make your presentation brilliant is the adrenaline surging because of nerves. It heightens your senses and allows your brain to operate much faster than normal. That helps.

After the first minute of talking allow yourself to enjoy the moment. You didn't get swallowed up and die, nobody laughed - its actually ok. So smile and enjoy.

At the start of the presentation just smile and say "hi everybody, I'm xxxxx from the xxxx team. In the next ten minutes or so I am going to tell you about x". you will feel immediately relaxed after just that. So will they.

Don't go too fast. If you do you will leave lots of bits out so not only will bit be over fast because you are talking quickly, it will be over even fast because you left whole chunks out. I have seen ten minute presentations go in just two minutes and the presenter is left standing there wondering what to do next because it made no sense because they forgot half of it.

If you forget something go back and cover it. The audience doesn't know the order you originally intended to speak so they wont notice. This is the same for all of your presentation - they don't know what it was supposed to be like so if you make mistakes or change things they wont notice anyway.

However you think its going, its going 5 times better. That is not a guide - that is fact. If you think its dreadful they think its ok. If you think its ok they think it was the best presentation of the day. If you think it was great they will think its the best they have ever heard.